Horowitz: Tim Kaine is an Excellent Pick

Tuesday, July 26, 2016
Rob Horowitz, GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™

In his first appearance with Hillary Clinton as her Vice-Presidential candidate, Senator Tim Kaine(D-VA) adeptly demonstrated one of the bonuses of his addition to the ticket—his ability to speak fluent Spanish.  As reported by The New York Times, “Fe, familia y trabajo,” he told the crowd of more than 5,000 people at Florida International University, explaining that faith, family and work defined his life.”

Kaine’s  fluency in Spanish will provide a bit of boost in swing states, such as Florida, Colorado and New Mexico, which have large percentages of Latino voters.  Popular in his home state of Virginia, the likeable Senator, who also served as Governor and as Mayor of Richmond, is likely to provide a 2- to-3 point cushion in that critical swing state.

But Kaine’s biggest strength as I argued in a column several weeks ago is that his selection buttresses the most important strategic imperative of the Clinton campaign, amplifying the contrast between her steadiness, knowledge and experience and Donald Trump’s  erratic behavior and just plain ignorance.

It is especially critical to reinforce this contrast given that Clinton is attempting to move the frame in which most voters make their decision in a political environment that is very friendly to a candidate arguing that it is time for a new approach from change versus more of the same to who has the steadiness and right kind of experience to guide us.  Tim Kaine easily passes the Commander-in-Chief test and that will be quickly recognized by most voters.

What makes this a winning strategy is that 70% of likely voters don’t think that Donald Trump has the right temperament to be President and about 60% don’t think he is qualified. While it seems as if Trump got a small bump out of his convention, nothing that happened in Cleveland did much to change these strongly negative perceptions.

Kaine also meets the second most critical strategic consideration--- to select someone who will not turn-off independents and moderate Republicans. The fact that a substantial percentage of self identified Republicans currently have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump creates an opening for Hillary Clinton.—one that the campaign continues to work hard to exploit 

The positive comments about Tim Kaine’s selection from many of his Republican Senate colleagues, compiled by Politico, demonstrate how he will help in this mission. For example, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said, “Tim would be a good steady hand for her. He’d be well received on our side of the aisle if he’s an emissary from the president.”  Commenting along the same lines,  Senator John McCain (R-AZ) exclaimed,  “He’s very bipartisan.”  “Well-respected,”  Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN) added.

The predictable outcry from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, whom strongly preferred Elizabeth Warren, has been relatively muted so far. Kaine is helped by the fact that he does have his fair share of admirers among progressives.  As top Sanders adviser and former President of the Communications Workers of America Larry Cohen said over the weekend: "Most Harvard Law graduates don't go into civil rights work in the South.  His life has been those kinds of choices. He's never run after big money. He's always run after 'How can I make a difference?”

More importantly, the possibility of Donald Trump becoming President is an impetus to party unity.  Eighty-five percent of Sanders’ supporters are already backing Clinton, according to a recent Pew Research Poll.

Hillary Clinton made her best possible strategic choice in selecting Tim Kaine—one that smartly amplifies her strongest points of contrast against Donald Trump and boosts the pursuit of moderate Independents and Republicans who are achievable persuasion targets in large measure due to Trump.  And to end on the most important point for all of us, if Tim Kaine ends up as President, we will all be able to sleep at night.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island